भारत में जनसंख्या एक समस्या है!!!

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भारत एक जनसंख्या बहुल देश है । कभी-कभी जनसंख्या पर चर्चा और बहस अलग ही मोड़ ले लेती है । अभी जल्दी ही भाजपा के अध्यक्ष जेपी नड्डा ने जनसंख्या वृद्धि को संज्ञान में लेते हुए कुल उच्च प्रजनन दर वाले जिलों पर अपने मंत्रालय को ध्यान देने को कहा जो क्रमशः बिहार(3.3), उत्तर प्रदेश(3.1), मध्य प्रदेश(2.8) और राजस्थान(2.7) राज्यों के जिले हैं[2017 के अनुसार] । जनसंख्या नीति -2000 के लिए 10 वर्षों का लक्ष्य रखा गया था उसे पूरी तरह से नजरअंदाज किया गया। प्रधानमंत्री का ध्यान जब विशेष रूप से खींचने की कोशिश की गई तो पता चला कि एक राजनीतिक समस्या उस रूप में नहीं है जिसके लिए सभी दलों की बैठक की जाए बल्कि मुख्य रूप से 3 राज्यों के मुख्यमंत्रियों बिहार, उत्तर प्रदेश, राजस्थान की जिम्मेदारी है ताकि प्राथमिकता के आधार पर निर्णय लिया जा सके और उन राज्यों में कुल प्रजनन दर को कम किया जा सके ताकि उस लक्ष्य (कुल प्रजनन दर-2.1) को पाया जा सके जिसे 24 राज्यों ने पहले ही प्राप्त कर लिया है ।
तो इसके लिए न्यूनतम मापदंड क्या होना चाहिए। जनसंख्याविदों की माने तो कुल प्रजनन दर (Total fertility Rate) अगर 2.1 है यानी अगर एक स्त्री अपने जीवन में कुल 2.1 बच्चे को जन्म देती है तो यह दर अपने माता-पिता को स्थानापन्न कर जनसंख्या को स्थिर कर देती है । अगर यह दर 2.1 से कम है तो जनसंख्या घटने लगती है । और अगर यह 2.1 से अधिक है तो जनसंख्या बढ़ने लगती है।
दुनिया के पैमाने पर देखा जाए तो वर्ष 2018 के हिसाब से पूरे विश्व की कुल प्रजनन दर 2.415 है । भारत में 2.2 ,यूके में 1.7, यू यस में 1.7, पाकिस्तान में 3.5, श्रीलंका में 2.2 और बांग्लादेश में यह दर 2.0 है । जबकि जापान और यूरोप में यह दर 1.5 से भी कम है। अगर आय के अनुसार इस दर का अध्ययन करें तो उच्च आय वाले समूह में यह 1.6, उच्च मध्यम आय में 1.9, मध्यम आय में 2.3,निम्न मध्यम आय में 2.8 और निम्न आय वाले लोगों के बीच यह दर 4.6 है।
महारजिस्ट्रार एवं जनगणना आयुक्त भारत सरकार के अनुसार राष्ट्रीय स्तर पर कुल प्रजनन दर वर्ष 1971 से 1981 के काल में 5.2 से 4.5 तक नीचे आया है तथा 1991 से 2017 तक 3.6 से 2.3 तक नीचे आया है। यह गिरावट ग्रामीण क्षेत्रों की तुलना में शहरी क्षेत्रों में ज्यादा है। जहां शहरी क्षेत्र में 1971 से 2017 के बीच यह 4.1 से 1.7 तक नीचे आया है वहीं ग्रामीण क्षेत्रों में इसी अवधि में यह 5.4 से 2.4 तक नीचे आया है।
अगर भारत में राज्यवार कुल प्रजनन दर का अध्ययन करें तो वर्ष 2017 के मुताबिक हम पाते हैं कि बिहार 3.3, राजस्थान 2.7, उत्तर प्रदेश 3.1 (जो भारत की जनसंख्या का 30% हिस्सा है ) यह देश को पीछे की ओर ले जा रहा है। वही इन राज्यों के पड़ोसी राज्यों मध्य प्रदेश 2.7, छत्तीसगढ़ 2.4 और झारखंड 2.5 (जो भारत की जनसंख्या का 10% है) घोषित लक्ष्य 2.1 की ओर आगे बढ़ रहा है आने वाले 2 वर्षों में वे इस लक्ष्य को पा लेंगे। सबसे कम केरल में यह दर 1.2 है । उत्तर भारत के मुकाबले दक्षिण भारत में यह दर 2.1 से भी कम है ।पश्चिम बंगाल की बात करें तो 2013 से यह दर 1.6 पर आकर स्थित हो गई।
अगर चार राज्यों बिहार उत्तर प्रदेश मध्य प्रदेश और राजस्थान के देहात और शहर की तुलना करें तो बिहार- कुल 3.3 ग्रामीण- 3.4 शहर- 2.5. इसी तरह उत्तर प्रदेश में कुल- 3.1 ग्रामीण -3.4 शहर-2.4, मध्यप्रदेश में कुल- 2.8 ग्रामीण- 3.1 शहर -2.1 तथा राजस्थान में कुल-2.7 ग्रामीण-2.8 शहर- 2.3.
इन आंकड़ों से यह अनुमान लगाना मुश्किल नहीं है कि महिलाओं की शिक्षा एक महत्वपूर्ण कारक है। महिलाओं की शिक्षा उत्तर भारत के मुकाबले दक्षिण भारत में अधिक है जिसका प्रभाव प्रजनन दर पर पड़ा है और वह घटता चला गया है। राष्ट्रीय स्तर पर 14.7% महिलाएं साक्षर नहीं हैं। साक्षर महिलाओं में लगभग 17.7 % महिलाओं ने दसवीं तक शिक्षा पाई है वहीं 12% महिलाओं में 12वीं तक तथा 9.8 प्रतिशत महिलाएं क्रमशः स्नातक या उससे अधिक शिक्षित हैं ।बिहार में जहां कुल प्रजनन दर उच्चतम है वहां 26.8% महिलाएं अशिक्षित है ।वहीं पर केरल में यह प्रतिशत 0.7 है ।शिक्षित महिलाओं में कुल प्रजनन दर 2.1 की ओर अग्रसर है वही अशिक्षित महिलाओं में यह दर 2.9 है।
दूसरा कारक गरीबी है। शिक्षा और गरीबी दो कारक हैं जो सामाजिक और आर्थिक हैं। जिन राज्यों में कुल प्रजनन दर ज्यादा है उनका अध्ययन किया जाना चाहिए और यथासंभव जल्द से जल्द उचित और विशेष कार्यवाही शुरू करनी चाहिए।
अगर जनसंख्या वृद्धि दर को धर्म के हिसाब से देखा जाए तो कुल प्रजनन दर मुस्लिम महिलाओं में अन्य धर्मों के मुकाबले ज्यादा तेजी से नीचे गई है और यह गिरावट 23% है। सबसे चिंताजनक स्थिति जैन और सिख महिलाओं की है, उनके लिए तो सरवाईबल का संकट उत्पन्न हो गया है।
जैसा कि अभी कहा जाता है कि भारत युवाओं का देश है क्योंकि भारत में युवाओं की संख्या ज्यादा है। इसका मतलब यह हुआ कि काम करने वालों की संख्या यानी वर्कफोर्स ज्यादा है। अगर इस स्थिति को ध्यान में रखें तो आने वाले 15-20 सालों में यह नौजवान पीढ़ी बुजुर्ग हो जाएगी और इस तरह से भारत में काम करने वालों यानी वर्क फोर्स की संख्या घट जाएगी । इस हिसाब से अगर जनसंख्या वृद्धि को देखें तो यह चिंताजनक बात है कि 20 साल बाद हमारे देश में काम करने वालों की संख्या कम हो जाएगी और बुजुर्गों की संख्या बहुत ही ज्यादा बढ़ जाएगी। चीन में भारत से पहले बुजुर्गों की संख्या बढ़ जाएगी।
– डॉ. नरेश कुमार

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